← AAEXPO Special Tournament June 1
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at AAEXPO Special Tournament June 1
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-4-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1390
· median 1390
· range 1352–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1130
Q1 1305
Q3 1421
1487
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.0% | +2.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
